On the Radar in 2008

Business reporters filed endless stories on the housing bust in 2007. And over the last few months, through all the speculation, one message from experts remained consistent: 2008 is when we should have some answers, some insight into how far home prices will drop and whether the country will slip into a recession. The hope for such clarity is why the housing slump and sub-prime crisis ranks as one of the top business stories reporters say they will tackle in 2008. Editors, at most major newspapers, agree. The topic will be a critical part of the year's coverage, but they say it's not the only story their reporters will be watching.

We asked some of business journalism's top names, "What are you keeping an eye on in 2008?" Here are their answers:

Josh Mills
Title: Director of the masters program in business journalism at Baruch College/CUNY in New York City
Stories he'll keep an eye on in 2008:

• China - Reporters should watch China's impact on the global price of commodities and other raw materials as its economy continues to surge. Pay attention to the growth of the Chinese auto market domestically. Also, track the flood of cheap Chinese exports to United States and European Union markets.
  
• Housing slump/sub-prime crisis - Questions will continue about inadequate regulation and controls, hustling of improper mortgages to less-qualified buyers and the inappropriateness of investments by pension funds.
  
• Health care - Reporters should pay attention to the continuing debate on health care, including rising costs, quality of care and the uninsured. It's a topic that will continue to pick up heat through the presidential campaigns.
  
• U.S. budget deficits - The lack of control on government spending and the enormous continuing cost of the war in Iraq will be major campaign issues and therefore an important business/financial story in 2008.
  
• Cell phone market- Is a shakeout looming in the cell phone market? Will the U.S. edge toward standardization?

Paul O'Donnell
Title: Business editor for The Plain Dealer
Stories he'll keep an eye on in 2008:

• The mortgage meltdown, housing slowdown and foreclosure crisis- Ohio and Michigan are foreclosure central. It's an issue that goes beyond the obvious economic consequences. It becomes a quality of life issue. We'll also chronicle our banks financial struggles with mortgage exposure.
  
• The future of the domestic auto industry - Like Michigan, much of Ohio's economic base is linked to Detroit's three big automakers. The shrinkage of those companies was a major focus in 2007, and I don't expect 2008 to be any different.
  
• Alternative energy - The Midwest isn't California, but the heartland has woken up to the potential of the solar and wind industries. Ohio is considering energy reform that would encourage growing use of alternative energy sources. That and the region's history as a manufacturing center create a beehive of activity, with multiple European manufacturers looking to set up outposts here.
  
• Remaking of the local economy - Perhaps this is uniquely Midwest, perhaps not. The Cleveland area has been hard hit this decade by the loss of manufacturing jobs, particularly as work has been shifted to low-cost countries overseas. This has resulted in considerable attention locally to growing new industries or nurturing existing ones to ultimately replace those lost jobs. Cleveland's efforts appear to be gaining traction, so 2008 could turn into a pivotal year.

Ben Santarris
Title: Business editor for The Oregonian
Stories he'll keep an eye on in 2008:

• Housing market - Portland is one of three cities that so far have escaped negative home prices, but Santarris knows his city may not be so lucky in 2008. The question for next year is how will the economy digest the housing slowdown and will there be a recession? Keeping a close eye on the trends nationwide and also what happens in Portland will be a key focus for the business staff. They will also watch to see if the city experiences fallout from an earlier residential and health care construction boom and watch what happens to the rental market.
  
• Data transparency in health care - Performance indicators of hospitals and physicians are being made available to consumers. Will consumers be able to access or grab the data to make sense of the marketplace? It's still not clear whether this will make a difference.
  
• Sports apparel - With Nike and Adidas both headquartered in Portland, the city is a hub for sports apparel. And the companies are starting to see a lot of business stemming from the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing. Reporters will track marketing and sales. They will also watch how the value of the dollar affects the companies' international sales.
  
• Intel - As the largest private employer in Oregon, business reporters at The Oregonian will track the company's new technology plans in 2008.

Bernie Kohn
Title: Business assistant managing editor for The Baltimore Sun
Stories he'll keep an eye on in 2008:

• Baltimore's housing slump - It's not as severe as in Florida, California or even Washington, D.C., but it is very pronounced, and no one thinks it's close to over. Prices are down, sales close to nonexistent and foreclosures, still lower than in many places, but rising rapidly because of the huge numbers of people who got a larger mortgage than they could afford. Housing is one business subject guaranteed to get huge web traffic, too.
  
• Baltimore's evolution - We'll be monitoring the ongoing late stages of Baltimore's evolution from a manufacturing and maritime center into a knowledge center led by the mutual fund, biotechnology and defense technology industries. A big part of this evolution is the upcoming military base realignment, which is expected to bring tens of thousands of new jobs to Maryland.
  
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  Copyright © 2008 Donald W. Reynolds National Center for Business Journalism