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“Signs of Life.” That’s what the latest cover of BusinessWeek says. Let’s hope it’s right. According the April 13th issue, housing sales are starting to stir again in some of the worst-hit areas in the country - the Gulf Coast of Florida, California’s Inland Empire, and metro Las Vegas - which could mean the real estate market has finally hit bottom.
The article reports that February housing sales were surprisingly brisk in places with high foreclosure rates. Speculators are swooping in on great deals, of course, and while these investors have been demonized for helping to create the bubble that burst, they’re now eliminating inventory, which will level out prices. First-time home buyers are also getting in on the action - tempted by bargains, rock-bottom interest rates, and government incentives. It’s easy for these two types of buyers to benefit from low prices right now - they don’t have to sell homes in order to buy - and a whole lot of folks can’t unload the houses they already own.
“Frenetic buying in a few depressed areas doesn't mean the national bust is over - far from it. But it does herald the start of a new phase in the boom-and-bust recovery cycle,” the article says. “Economists might call it equilibrium: Prices have fallen so much in some areas that shoppers are getting interested again, improving the balance between buyers and sellers. That doesn't mean prices will surge anytime soon. But heavy buying should at least begin to put a floor under prices.”
The biggest factor hampering a housing recovery is the difficulty in qualifying for mortgages. Until banks loosen up lending standards, the overall market can’t bounce back. So the magazine cautions: “It's best to view the brisk sales in some markets as glimmers of hope in a national market that seems likely to remain weak for a while.” At least, it’s a step in the right direction.
Copyright © 2009 Donald W. Reynolds National Center for Business Journalism